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I’m not the only bear out there. This is your market. Yes, there are major issues as shown, but what if this guy is right?
There’s no way I agree with Tim Knight’s view, but it almost seems that way, doesn’t it? Remember, Tim is a huge bear as well.
Moving right along… we will NOT get a “sell, sell, sell” warning from Wall Street. Hell, we’ve been getting them for over a year from some of the biggest money managers out there- nothing so far.
Your charts are your only friend. Why? Because that’s real money moving in and out and you are paid on being right as to the direction (trend) of price movement. Yes, there are less and less stocks participating; yes, as the article points out, there are less leading sectors participating; yes, the smaller stocks (IWM) are lagging big time.
Still, if you’re paid to trade with the trend, even though, participation is waning, you have to trade with trend… albeit, as I suggest, smaller size while maintaining a known reversal trade ready to execute.
You are playing in a risk game. You are trying to understand economics (not exactly a precise science, in fact certainly not a science) in 2017 which in no way looks like economics prior to 2007. The fact is there are waaaaaaay too many variables to ponder and so we read what we can, understanding what we can, appreciating what we see divided by the number of articles read for the week, and place our bet. (I do hate using that word, but what else can it be called? Even a hedged bet has potential for loss.)
Now, why would I talk like that, stressing the risk? Because, unlike neophytes in this market, my first question is NOT how much can I make on this trade, BUT how much can I lose on this trade? I have a very clear understanding of working capital and preservation of same… without it, I’m out of the game altogether. I’m VERY willing to risk it, but on my terms.
You see the indices trying for new highs. That’s nice. There’s only one thing wrong:
Any and all markets, whether the indices, metals, and bonds are tradable over any time period. Do you know what you’re doing considering your time view?
Stalk your trade. Plan your trade. Execute your plan.
Here you are at the Wall Street Pirate looking for a prized nugget of Wall Street trading wisdom. You want a trade tip, maybe learn some trading tricks, or how to avoid traps, and/or you want new trade techniques.
But is that really why you’re here?
Maybe you stumbled onto this page searching for pictures of bulls, bears, donkeys, or elephants. My guess is that ‘looking for pictures of dung’ would be a long shot.
Aren’t you really here because you can’t find anything to read, anywhere, in any language or publication that does not contain the letters t, r, u, m, and p? That’s what I thought.
Now, as long as you’re here and for whatever reason…
In the stock market, we refer to participants as being either a farm animal, a bull, or a forest dweller, a bear.
It’s a simple concept. If you’re positive on the market, you’re bullish. Bulls fight by charging with lowered heads and then lifting that massive, horned head upward to strike their opponent.
In the market, the opponents of hoofed bovine are known as bears (furry-pawed ursine). These bears are not to be confused with Smokey, Yogi, or Boo Boo.
Every minute of every day the bovine herd fights off a sloth of ursine for control of the market. (Yes, a group of bears is called a sloth. Go figure.)
Market bears expect markets to go down. Lumbering bears can still be fast and are known for fighting by swiping their powerful massive clawed-paws downward.
On their respective Facebook pages, I’m sure bovine and ursine describe their relationship as “it’s complicated.”
It may be economic activity that jolts the market animals into action in one direction or another, but often that jolt comes from the actions of two other animals… another farm animal, the donkey, and a jungle animal, the elephant.
It does conjure images of stubborn Democrats and powerful Republicans respectively, doesn’t it? (Be my guest, transpose the adjectives describing either party.)
Why the donkey and elephant? “…cartoonist Thomas Nast used the donkey in his newspaper cartoons, helping to establish it as the symbol of the Democratic Party. And it was Nast who provided the Republicans with their elephant. … In an 1874 cartoon, Nast drew a donkey clothed in a lion’s skin – scaring off the other animals at the zoo.”
In the off-chance that you’re not aware of the stock market’s advance since the 2009 lows to present, and/or from the November 2016 election to present… the gains for the Dow Industrials are 241% and 24% respectively.
The market animals dance to the tune of the political animals since they control fiscal policy, how tax money is spent. It doesn’t matter to the donkeys and elephants that they are 21 trillion dollars in debt.
The market animals must keep bubbling the market upward.
The market gain mentioned is considered by assorted ursine gurus as “overvalued, and too expensive.” They await a market correction any day now. The problem is they’ve been in that expectation mode since 2015.
If you’re a market participant or market junkie, or if you’re a political news junkie that can’t get enough social media discussions, distractions, or if you’re just a gossiper of anything and everything… know this: Whether your animal is the bull, bear, donkey, or elephant whose respective dung looks like, well, a heaping pile of shit… it all stinks.
Something is very wrong with the markets and the animals know it.
Something is very wrong with the political system and the animals know it.
Still, the largest animal herd of all, the sheeple (whose own dung apparently does not stink, just ask them) have yet to smell it all for what it is… bull, bear, donkey, and elephant shit.
And it all stinks.
“I care not what puppet is placed on the throne of England to rule the Empire, …The man that controls Britain’s money supply controls the British Empire. And I control the money supply.” Baron Rothschild advice given to the ECB and FOMC.After today, a paradigm shift in our market has occurred, in my humble opinion. Not just any old shift, a paradigm shift. I’ve always understood that by adding the word paradigm it somehow makes it seem incredibly different, incredibly important. We’ll see.We are seeing the end of central bank support in Europe, which started the selling today, as well as the posturing of our Fed to hike rates, as Mr. Lacker says, as soon as November. You saw the market reaction… stocks, bonds, gold, currency, all down.I’ll go one opinion further and say that I believe a November rate hike is exactly what we’ll get, after the election.Since both GOP and Dem candidates have been forecast to cause a correction (crash).. what better plan can the Fed ask for: raise rates in November, allow the crash (correction), blame it on the politicians.You can day trade, swing trade, or position trade… but you have to be in the market to even have a chance at making money while putting your money at risk. Oh, and when you’re in the trade, you have to manage that trade.It all makes sense at some point since there is method to the madness.
The Baltic Dry Index measures the rise or fall of fees charged by shippers to move raw material. Why would shippers feel they could charge more unless things were improving?
The shipping company stock charts are trending up on those higher fees.
Charts are unemotional, unbiased, non-opinionated… real money moving in and out leaves a trail shown on the charts as a trend. What do we see?
You cannot see my grimace as I smack the keyboard with bandaged paws. My bear paws were burned, stomped on, and gored by bulls that frankly I thought were running solely on Fed supplied hopium. How else could we explain so many “V” bounces in the last three years?
In the end, does it matter why it happened? I think most market participants will point to the Fed and zero interest rates; the end result was too many too hot to handle flaming “V” bounces.
At this point, however, I want to explain why, when these bandages come off, I hope I’ve morphed and see hooves rather than paws.
See the full article at SeekingAlpha.com.